線上課程上線的營收預測

Key assumptions

Assumption	Value	Source
Average check	$6.50	Owner's menu
Ingredients and cup per sale	$1.90	Supplier price list
Card fees	2.5% of revenue ($0.16)	Payment terminal tariff
Fixed costs per month	$9,000	Rent $1,800, staff $6,400, utilities $350, other $450
Start-up spend	$38,000	Machine and grinders, fit-out, opening stock
Loan repayment	$600 per month	Loan offer

Unit economics

• Revenue per cup: $6.50
• Variable cost per cup: $2.06
• Contribution per cup: $4.44 (68% margin)

Break-even point

$9,000 ÷ $4.44 = 2,027 cups a month, about 68 cups a day over 30 days. The forecast reaches it in month 3.

Monthly forecast

Month	Cups sold	Revenue, $	Profit, $	Cash at month end, $
1	1,500	9,750	−2,340	4,060
2	1,900	12,350	−564	2,896
3	2,300	14,950	1,212	3,508
4	2,600	16,900	2,544	5,452
5	2,900	18,850	3,876	8,728
6	3,100	20,150	4,764	12,892
7	3,300	21,450	5,652	17,944
8	3,300	21,450	5,652	22,996
9	3,100	20,150	4,764	27,160
10	2,900	18,850	3,876	30,436
11	2,800	18,200	3,432	33,268
12	3,000	19,500	4,320	36,988

Year 1 totals: revenue $212,550, operating profit $37,188, cash at year end $36,988.

What the numbers say

1. Months 1–2 are the tight spot. Cash drops to about $2,900 in month 2. Keep at least $3,000 in reserve or delay one hire until month 3.
2. Summer carries the year. Months 5–9 bring about two-thirds of annual profit, so plan marketing and staff holidays around them.
3. Price matters more than volume. Raising the average check by $0.50 lifts year 1 profit by about $16,900; selling 10% more cups adds about $15,000.
4. Payback. At the current pace, the $38,000 start-up spend is covered in roughly 13 months.

All formulas are live in the Excel file: change any yellow cell on the Assumptions sheet and every month updates.