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Revenue forecast for an online course launch

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Revenue forecast for an online course launch

Example result

Example for the Standard package

12-month forecast: a coffee kiosk at a ferry terminal

Key assumptions

AssumptionValueSource
Average check$6.50Owner's menu
Ingredients and cup per sale$1.90Supplier price list
Card fees2.5% of revenue ($0.16)Payment terminal tariff
Fixed costs per month$9,000Rent $1,800, staff $6,400, utilities $350, other $450
Start-up spend$38,000Machine and grinders, fit-out, opening stock
Loan repayment$600 per monthLoan offer

Unit economics

  • Revenue per cup: $6.50
  • Variable cost per cup: $2.06
  • Contribution per cup: $4.44 (68% margin)

Break-even point

$9,000 ÷ $4.44 = 2,027 cups a month, about 68 cups a day over 30 days. The forecast reaches it in month 3.

Monthly forecast

MonthCups soldRevenue, $Profit, $Cash at month end, $
11,5009,750−2,3404,060
21,90012,350−5642,896
32,30014,9501,2123,508
42,60016,9002,5445,452
52,90018,8503,8768,728
63,10020,1504,76412,892
73,30021,4505,65217,944
83,30021,4505,65222,996
93,10020,1504,76427,160
102,90018,8503,87630,436
112,80018,2003,43233,268
123,00019,5004,32036,988

Year 1 totals: revenue $212,550, operating profit $37,188, cash at year end $36,988.

What the numbers say

  1. Months 1–2 are the tight spot. Cash drops to about $2,900 in month 2. Keep at least $3,000 in reserve or delay one hire until month 3.
  2. Summer carries the year. Months 5–9 bring about two-thirds of annual profit, so plan marketing and staff holidays around them.
  3. Price matters more than volume. Raising the average check by $0.50 lifts year 1 profit by about $16,900; selling 10% more cups adds about $15,000.
  4. Payback. At the current pace, the $38,000 start-up spend is covered in roughly 13 months.

All formulas are live in the Excel file: change any yellow cell on the Assumptions sheet and every month updates.

Client: Morning Dock, a coffee kiosk opening in March at a commuter ferry terminal. Owner's investment $25,000 plus a $20,000 equipment loan.

The client and all details are made up.

About this service

A course launch is a funnel: audience size, sign-ups to a webinar or waitlist, conversion to buyers, price tiers, payment plans and refunds. We turn your list size, ad budget and expected conversion rates into launch revenue, then subtract platform and payment fees, affiliate commissions, ads, refunds and your team's costs. You see what the launch is likely to earn, the cost per buyer and which number in the funnel matters most.

What is included

  • What you getFunnel and revenue tables from audience to net profit, with cost per buyer, refund and payment-plan effects and assumptions, as text and an .xlsx file with values. This is a planning estimate, not financial, tax or investment advice.
  • Launch funnelAudience, sign-ups, buyers
  • Price tiersRevenue split by tier
  • Fees and refundsWhat actually reaches you
  • Cost per buyerAds and affiliates per sale
  • Payment plansWhen instalments really arrive

How it works

  1. 1
    BriefYou share audience, price and budget
  2. 2
    CalculationWe run the funnel step by step
  3. 3
    DeliveryYou get tables, .xlsx and a summary

What we need from you

Your email list and social audience, planned ad budget, past conversion rates if you have them, course price and tiers, payment plan terms, platform, fees, affiliates and team costs.

We will ask you:

  • How big is your audience?
  • What are the price tiers and payment plans?
  • What conversion rates have you seen before?
  • Which platform and payment provider do you use?

Compare packages

PackagesBasicOne launch estimate$15StandardLaunch plus 12 months$35Premium12 months, 3 scenarios$69
Deadline1 day2 days4 days
Revisions123
Periodone launch12 months12 months
Scenarios113
Funnel breakdownYesYesYes
Excel file (.xlsx)YesYesYes
Order BasicOrder StandardOrder Premium

Payment protection

You pay when you order, but the money is released only for accepted work.

  • Fixed priceThe package price does not change after you pay.
  • The money is reservedWhen you pay, the amount is only reserved. It is released to the service once you accept the work.
  • Checked before deliveryEvery result goes through a quality check before it reaches you, and you see it on the order page before accepting it.
  • Free revisionsAsk for changes within your brief as many times as the package allows.
  • Acceptance after 3 daysIf within 3 days of delivery you neither accept the work nor ask for changes, it is accepted automatically. If you write in the order chat after delivery, the order waits; once we answer, we may start the 3 days again and will say so in the chat.
  • Redo or a full refundIf the result does not match your brief and the revisions did not fix it, or the work takes more than twice its deadline, write in the order chat: we will redo the work or refund the payment in full.
How it works →

Questions and answers

Is this financial advice?

No. It is an estimate based on your inputs, and real launches vary a lot. Treat it as a plan to test, not a promise of income.

What if this is my first launch?

We use cautious typical conversion ranges and say so in the assumptions, so you can replace them with your own numbers later.

Can it cover an evergreen funnel?

Yes. Instead of one launch we forecast monthly traffic, sign-ups and sales over the period of your package.

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