Amazon FBA numbersBusiness

Amazon FBA product profit and cash flow forecast

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Amazon FBA product profit and cash flow forecast

Example result

Example for the Standard package

12-month forecast: a coffee kiosk at a ferry terminal

Key assumptions

AssumptionValueSource
Average check$6.50Owner's menu
Ingredients and cup per sale$1.90Supplier price list
Card fees2.5% of revenue ($0.16)Payment terminal tariff
Fixed costs per month$9,000Rent $1,800, staff $6,400, utilities $350, other $450
Start-up spend$38,000Machine and grinders, fit-out, opening stock
Loan repayment$600 per monthLoan offer

Unit economics

  • Revenue per cup: $6.50
  • Variable cost per cup: $2.06
  • Contribution per cup: $4.44 (68% margin)

Break-even point

$9,000 ÷ $4.44 = 2,027 cups a month, about 68 cups a day over 30 days. The forecast reaches it in month 3.

Monthly forecast

MonthCups soldRevenue, $Profit, $Cash at month end, $
11,5009,750−2,3404,060
21,90012,350−5642,896
32,30014,9501,2123,508
42,60016,9002,5445,452
52,90018,8503,8768,728
63,10020,1504,76412,892
73,30021,4505,65217,944
83,30021,4505,65222,996
93,10020,1504,76427,160
102,90018,8503,87630,436
112,80018,2003,43233,268
123,00019,5004,32036,988

Year 1 totals: revenue $212,550, operating profit $37,188, cash at year end $36,988.

What the numbers say

  1. Months 1–2 are the tight spot. Cash drops to about $2,900 in month 2. Keep at least $3,000 in reserve or delay one hire until month 3.
  2. Summer carries the year. Months 5–9 bring about two-thirds of annual profit, so plan marketing and staff holidays around them.
  3. Price matters more than volume. Raising the average check by $0.50 lifts year 1 profit by about $16,900; selling 10% more cups adds about $15,000.
  4. Payback. At the current pace, the $38,000 start-up spend is covered in roughly 13 months.

All formulas are live in the Excel file: change any yellow cell on the Assumptions sheet and every month updates.

Client: Morning Dock, a coffee kiosk opening in March at a commuter ferry terminal. Owner's investment $25,000 plus a $20,000 equipment loan.

The client and all details are made up.

About this service

We work out the profit of an Amazon FBA product from the landed cost: factory price, freight and duties, referral fee, FBA fulfilment and storage fees, PPC spend and returns. Then we forecast monthly sales and cash, showing how much money is tied up in each production order and inbound shipment before Amazon pays you out.

What is included

  • What you getForecast tables for your listing: landed cost per unit, Amazon fees, PPC cost per sale, net profit per unit, ROI, monthly sales and cash flow across reorder cycles, with assumptions listed. Tables come as text on the order page and as an Excel (.xlsx) file; this is a planning estimate, not financial, tax or investment advice.
  • Landed costFactory, freight, duty and prep per unit
  • Amazon feesReferral, FBA and storage fees
  • PPC per saleAd cost spread over every unit sold
  • Reorder cash cycleCash tied up from order to payout
  • Profit and ROIPer unit and per production order

How it works

  1. 1
    BriefYou share costs, fees and sales targets
  2. 2
    CalculationWe work out unit profit and reorder cash
  3. 3
    DeliveryYou get tables, an Excel file and a summary

What we need from you

The product, marketplace, selling price, factory cost and order size, freight and duty, size and weight tier, expected daily sales, PPC budget and lead times, as text. Documents can also be attached as PDF, Word or Excel files.

We will ask you:

  • What is the product, and on which Amazon marketplace?
  • What are the factory price, order size and freight cost?
  • What selling price and daily sales do you expect?
  • How much will you spend on PPC?

Compare packages

PackagesBasicUnit profit check$19Standard12-month sales and cash$39Premium3-year scale-up plan$79
Deadline1 day2 days4 days
Revisions123
Periodper unit and per month12 months3 years
Scenarios113
Cash flow tableNoYesYes
Tables in Excel (.xlsx)YesYesYes
Order BasicOrder StandardOrder Premium

Payment protection

You pay when you order, but the money is released only for accepted work.

  • Fixed priceThe package price does not change after you pay.
  • The money is reservedWhen you pay, the amount is only reserved. It is released to the service once you accept the work.
  • Checked before deliveryEvery result goes through a quality check before it reaches you, and you see it on the order page before accepting it.
  • Free revisionsAsk for changes within your brief as many times as the package allows.
  • Acceptance after 3 daysIf within 3 days of delivery you neither accept the work nor ask for changes, it is accepted automatically. If you write in the order chat after delivery, the order waits; once we answer, we may start the 3 days again and will say so in the chat.
  • Redo or a full refundIf the result does not match your brief and the revisions did not fix it, or the work takes more than twice its deadline, write in the order chat: we will redo the work or refund the payment in full.
How it works →

Questions and answers

Are Amazon fees up to date?

We use the fees you give us or typical ones for your size tier and mark them. Check the current fees in Seller Central before you order stock.

Can you compare two product ideas?

Yes, in Standard or Premium. Give us the numbers for both and we put them side by side.

Do you do product research?

No. We calculate the numbers you bring; finding products and checking demand is up to you.

Packages
Order · $39· 2 days