Payment protectionDetails
- Revisions within the package are free.
- If you do not respond within 3 days of delivery, the work is accepted automatically.
The money is reserved when you pay and released only once you accept the work.
Example result
12-month forecast: a coffee kiosk at a ferry terminal
Key assumptions
| Assumption | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Average check | $6.50 | Owner's menu |
| Ingredients and cup per sale | $1.90 | Supplier price list |
| Card fees | 2.5% of revenue ($0.16) | Payment terminal tariff |
| Fixed costs per month | $9,000 | Rent $1,800, staff $6,400, utilities $350, other $450 |
| Start-up spend | $38,000 | Machine and grinders, fit-out, opening stock |
| Loan repayment | $600 per month | Loan offer |
Unit economics
- Revenue per cup: $6.50
- Variable cost per cup: $2.06
- Contribution per cup: $4.44 (68% margin)
Break-even point
$9,000 ÷ $4.44 = 2,027 cups a month, about 68 cups a day over 30 days. The forecast reaches it in month 3.
Monthly forecast
| Month | Cups sold | Revenue, $ | Profit, $ | Cash at month end, $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1,500 | 9,750 | −2,340 | 4,060 |
| 2 | 1,900 | 12,350 | −564 | 2,896 |
| 3 | 2,300 | 14,950 | 1,212 | 3,508 |
| 4 | 2,600 | 16,900 | 2,544 | 5,452 |
| 5 | 2,900 | 18,850 | 3,876 | 8,728 |
| 6 | 3,100 | 20,150 | 4,764 | 12,892 |
| 7 | 3,300 | 21,450 | 5,652 | 17,944 |
| 8 | 3,300 | 21,450 | 5,652 | 22,996 |
| 9 | 3,100 | 20,150 | 4,764 | 27,160 |
| 10 | 2,900 | 18,850 | 3,876 | 30,436 |
| 11 | 2,800 | 18,200 | 3,432 | 33,268 |
| 12 | 3,000 | 19,500 | 4,320 | 36,988 |
Year 1 totals: revenue $212,550, operating profit $37,188, cash at year end $36,988.
What the numbers say
- Months 1–2 are the tight spot. Cash drops to about $2,900 in month 2. Keep at least $3,000 in reserve or delay one hire until month 3.
- Summer carries the year. Months 5–9 bring about two-thirds of annual profit, so plan marketing and staff holidays around them.
- Price matters more than volume. Raising the average check by $0.50 lifts year 1 profit by about $16,900; selling 10% more cups adds about $15,000.
- Payback. At the current pace, the $38,000 start-up spend is covered in roughly 13 months.
All formulas are live in the Excel file: change any yellow cell on the Assumptions sheet and every month updates.
Client: Morning Dock, a coffee kiosk opening in March at a commuter ferry terminal. Owner's investment $25,000 plus a $20,000 equipment loan.
The client and all details are made up.
About this service
We forecast a subscription box or membership from its subscriber base: new sign-ups, monthly cancellations, skips and pauses, plan mix and how long the average member stays. For boxes we add product, packing and shipping cost per box, and for memberships the cost of content, events or perks, so you see lifetime value against what you pay to win each subscriber.
What is included
- What you getForecast tables for your subscription: active subscribers by month, churn and pauses, revenue by plan, cost per box or member, lifetime value, acquisition cost and cash flow, with assumptions listed. Tables come as text on the order page and as an Excel (.xlsx) file; this is a planning estimate, not financial, tax or investment advice.
- Subscriber flowNew, cancelled, paused and active
- Cost per box or memberProduct, packing, shipping or perks
- Lifetime valueProfit over a typical stay
- Prepaid plansQuarterly and annual cash timing
- Acquisition paybackMonths to earn back a new subscriber
How it works
- 1BriefYou share plans, costs and churn
- 2CalculationWe work out subscribers, LTV and cash
- 3DeliveryYou get tables, an Excel file and a summary
What we need from you
What the box or membership includes, plans and prices (monthly, quarterly, annual), current or expected subscribers, churn, cost per box or per member, shipping, acquisition cost and other monthly costs.
We will ask you:
- Is it a physical box or a membership?
- What are your plans and prices?
- How many subscribers do you have or expect, and how many cancel?
- What does one box or member cost you?
Compare packages
| Packages | BasicSubscriber economics$19 | Standard12-month forecast$39 | Premium3-year plan, 3 scenarios$79 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | 1 day | 2 days | 4 days |
| Revisions | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Period | per unit and per month | 12 months | 3 years |
| Scenarios | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Cash flow table | No | Yes | Yes |
| Tables in Excel (.xlsx) | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Order Basic | Order Standard | Order Premium |
Payment protection
You pay when you order, but the money is released only for accepted work.
- Fixed priceThe package price does not change after you pay.
- The money is reservedWhen you pay, the amount is only reserved. It is released to the service once you accept the work.
- Checked before deliveryEvery result goes through a quality check before it reaches you, and you see it on the order page before accepting it.
- Free revisionsAsk for changes within your brief as many times as the package allows.
- Acceptance after 3 daysIf within 3 days of delivery you neither accept the work nor ask for changes, it is accepted automatically. If you write in the order chat after delivery, the order waits; once we answer, we may start the 3 days again and will say so in the chat.
- Redo or a full refundIf the result does not match your brief and the revisions did not fix it, or the work takes more than twice its deadline, write in the order chat: we will redo the work or refund the payment in full.
Questions and answers
How do you handle skips and pauses?
We treat paused subscribers as not paying that month but not lost, using the rate you give us.
Can you show the effect of a gift subscription season?
Yes. Gift subscriptions usually spike before holidays and end without renewal, and we show that separately.
Will the forecast tell me the right price?
It shows the margin and payback at the prices you test. Premium scenarios can compare price points.