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SaaS financial forecast with MRR, churn and growth

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SaaS financial forecast with MRR, churn and growth

Example result

Example for the Standard package

12-month forecast: a coffee kiosk at a ferry terminal

Key assumptions

AssumptionValueSource
Average check$6.50Owner's menu
Ingredients and cup per sale$1.90Supplier price list
Card fees2.5% of revenue ($0.16)Payment terminal tariff
Fixed costs per month$9,000Rent $1,800, staff $6,400, utilities $350, other $450
Start-up spend$38,000Machine and grinders, fit-out, opening stock
Loan repayment$600 per monthLoan offer

Unit economics

  • Revenue per cup: $6.50
  • Variable cost per cup: $2.06
  • Contribution per cup: $4.44 (68% margin)

Break-even point

$9,000 ÷ $4.44 = 2,027 cups a month, about 68 cups a day over 30 days. The forecast reaches it in month 3.

Monthly forecast

MonthCups soldRevenue, $Profit, $Cash at month end, $
11,5009,750−2,3404,060
21,90012,350−5642,896
32,30014,9501,2123,508
42,60016,9002,5445,452
52,90018,8503,8768,728
63,10020,1504,76412,892
73,30021,4505,65217,944
83,30021,4505,65222,996
93,10020,1504,76427,160
102,90018,8503,87630,436
112,80018,2003,43233,268
123,00019,5004,32036,988

Year 1 totals: revenue $212,550, operating profit $37,188, cash at year end $36,988.

What the numbers say

  1. Months 1–2 are the tight spot. Cash drops to about $2,900 in month 2. Keep at least $3,000 in reserve or delay one hire until month 3.
  2. Summer carries the year. Months 5–9 bring about two-thirds of annual profit, so plan marketing and staff holidays around them.
  3. Price matters more than volume. Raising the average check by $0.50 lifts year 1 profit by about $16,900; selling 10% more cups adds about $15,000.
  4. Payback. At the current pace, the $38,000 start-up spend is covered in roughly 13 months.

All formulas are live in the Excel file: change any yellow cell on the Assumptions sheet and every month updates.

Client: Morning Dock, a coffee kiosk opening in March at a commuter ferry terminal. Owner's investment $25,000 plus a $20,000 equipment loan.

The client and all details are made up.

About this service

We forecast a SaaS business from the drivers that matter: new signups, trial-to-paid conversion, plan mix, monthly churn and expansion revenue, rolled up into MRR and ARR. Hosting, support and acquisition costs give you gross margin, CAC payback and LTV to CAC, so you can see how long the cash lasts at your current growth.

What is included

  • What you getForecast tables for your SaaS: MRR movements (new, expansion, churn), customers by plan, gross margin, CAC, LTV, burn and cash flow, with assumptions listed. Tables come as text on the order page and as an Excel (.xlsx) file; this is a planning estimate, not financial, tax or investment advice.
  • MRR bridgeNew, expansion, contraction and churn
  • Plan mixMonthly and annual plans counted apart
  • Unit economicsCAC, LTV and payback months
  • Burn and runwayMonths of cash at your growth
  • Assumptions in one placeChange churn and see the effect

How it works

  1. 1
    BriefYou share pricing, funnel and costs
  2. 2
    CalculationWe build the MRR bridge and cash view
  3. 3
    DeliveryYou get tables, an Excel file and key metrics

What we need from you

Your plans and prices, current MRR and customers if live, signups and conversion rates, churn, team and tool costs, marketing spend and cash in the bank, pasted as text. Documents can also be attached as PDF, Word or Excel files.

We will ask you:

  • What are your plans and prices?
  • Are you live, and what is your current MRR?
  • What are your signup, conversion and churn rates?
  • What is the forecast for?

Compare packages

PackagesBasicSaaS unit economics$19Standard12-month MRR forecast$39Premium3-year SaaS plan$79
Deadline1 day2 days4 days
Revisions123
Periodper unit and per month12 months3 years
Scenarios113
Cash flow tableNoYesYes
Tables in Excel (.xlsx)YesYesYes
Order BasicOrder StandardOrder Premium

Payment protection

You pay when you order, but the money is released only for accepted work.

  • Fixed priceThe package price does not change after you pay.
  • The money is reservedWhen you pay, the amount is only reserved. It is released to the service once you accept the work.
  • Checked before deliveryEvery result goes through a quality check before it reaches you, and you see it on the order page before accepting it.
  • Free revisionsAsk for changes within your brief as many times as the package allows.
  • Acceptance after 3 daysIf within 3 days of delivery you neither accept the work nor ask for changes, it is accepted automatically. If you write in the order chat after delivery, the order waits; once we answer, we may start the 3 days again and will say so in the chat.
  • Redo or a full refundIf the result does not match your brief and the revisions did not fix it, or the work takes more than twice its deadline, write in the order chat: we will redo the work or refund the payment in full.
How it works →

Questions and answers

How do you treat annual prepayments?

Annual plans count as MRR spread over 12 months, while the cash comes in upfront. You see both lines.

Can you split churn into logo and revenue churn?

Yes, if you give us both numbers or how downgrades usually happen.

Is this ready for investors?

It gives you clear numbers and assumptions to build on. Investors will test the assumptions, so have a finance adviser review it first.

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